I thought I was waking up in the middle of the night – house pitch black and wondered who would be calling me in at this hour. Of course, forgot all light accesses are now covered so we are abiding in a cave
Word is the power grid is going to shut in 3 hours – 10am local time, so a few hours left to get anything done that requires electricity. New cave dwelling has been transformed into chinese laundromat. Feels just like home now.
The current situation here in Ochi – very overcast, however a few lighter spots to the east. Light drizzle, very slight wind gusts and the sea is gentle waves.
If Dean stays on his course, it looks like the eye will pass to our south, thanks to the man above for this. The sheer size of this storm will still affect Jamaica tremendously, but if the current track continues, it will be far less than if the eye passed over us.
I certainly hope this stays true for Cayman – after Ivan, they certainly don’t want any more
My dogs are really out of sorts this morning – they are normally comatose on the floor blocking up whichever doorway you want to enter – this morning they are prancing around half a step behind me, so I have just let them know that we can’t be holed up in a cave and have this kind of behaviour. They can’t figure out why they have to use the back door to go outside – this information is not in their minimal brain storage. These are 2 large 2 year olds who have not yet been through any type of nasty weather, so I think I am in for a treat.
Hubby is in Kingston with one of the aircraft ready to fly the Digicel cell tower sites as soon as the weather passes. The sites will all be inspected and repairs begin immediately, so hopefully we will have cell service very soon after Dean departs. I haven’t had land line phones operating for about 3 weeks, so guess Cable & Wortless has a legitimate excuse now.
Electricity will be another story – we will have to wait and see with that. Hopefully Island Village will come through unscathed and we can start the generator tomorrow. After Ivan, we had the village open in 24 hours and became an electricity stopover for anyone who wanted to charge cell phone, bring their freezers full of food to etc. It takes everyone helping everyone after these times.
Will post again with any changes, but after 10am – this voice will be quiet for a while
Very best to everyone out there
– Are we to be “saved”??
From: “Robin Plough”
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2007 22:51:32 -0500
Hi all my fellow Jamaicans:- are we going to be “saved”, well maybe just slightly: Dean has shifted path, slightly to the South.
Can we attribute this to the “faithful”, who claim that, by the power of their prayers, managed to deflect Ivan?
I am sitting on my coffee farm ( expecting a total destruction of the crop in the next few hours ) way up, some 4,000 in the Blue Mountains: gusty winds starting to build: forcing me to retune the satellite dish to a less wind affected position: and right in the middle of a programme, NOT a repeat!!
10.30pm (local ) wind building up, just a few drops of rain, and some of the stars still clearly visible in the sky. The “night chorus” must know something, they are almost silent: Most unusual. Both my dogs have been hyperactive for the last few hours, somehow THEY know ( often noticed this with dogs, any one got an explanation?? My thought has been that they can detect the wind induced static electricity in the air. )
KEEP a watchful eye on the storm track, if it keeps up this slight southwards movement, we may just miss the very worse of the storm: and with some luck, the further south it goes, the more protection for my coffee bushes, from the mountains!
Hope you all come through, unscathed. Robin
– The heat is on
From: “Sue Morris”
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2007 18:40:58 -0500
Who turned up the furnace – we are baking here in Ochi. The heat is unbelievable and no breeze to move it around, however I think we are going to get more breeze than we can handle so enough of that subject.
The day started off in Ochi – overcast drizzling rain and generally dismal, however the sun came out in full force about 11am, clear blue skies – fabulous day.
The sea is very flat and we have a few puffy whites floating above, the sun will be setting soon, the end of a beautiful day.
The reports are truly ominous and unfortunately there is still complacency about Dean from too many people. That really saddens me as these are the folks who will suffer most of all.
I live right on the ocean in a one story cottage, the sea is about 15 ft. from my front door with the land being about 2 ft above the ocean. The talk of 30ft waves and high storm surges is not something I wanted to hear, so the plan is to stay in the house tonight and in the morning move to one of the other buildings on higher ground on the property. My cottage survived Gilbert, but I am not taking any chances, I have entirely too much planned to do next week.
We are unfortunately anticipating quite significant damage if Dean stays on the same course. We need every government member to start shouting “Time to change course” and maybe Dean will scurry away. Does not seem to be too much hope of that happening, so we all need to be careful and stay as safe as possible.
Can’t even imagine what we are going to experience. We have a new pilot working for us from the USA, what an experience in week 3 of the job. He has his raviolis and water and says he is set to go. I think he is really going to find out in a hurry that we operate on a much slower time frame here – no stress, soon come
Yamon, that will be the standard answers from the utility companies after the storm. We re expecting JPS to shut down the national grid at some point during Dean to minimise damages. I did not have any electricity for 5 weeks after Ivan, so hope they have their act together a likkle better now. Our power company has just been bought out by a Japanese company, so let’s put them right to the test and see how they perform
To all is Dean’s path, stay safe
thoughts and prayers from Jamaica
– 48HR CURFEW NO IN EFFECT…Mandatory evacuation now in effect forall low lying areas
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2007 16:42:04 -0700 (PDT)
It has been an amazinging nice(weather) day here in Jamaica. Cloudless skies,light winds and calm seas (at least where I live in Montego Bay. However conditions will start to deteroiate over the next few hours as the outer bands of Hurricane Dean are likely to start affecting Eastern Parishes,At first then spreading to Western Parishes. We should start experiencing Tropical Storm Conditions at 3a.m . The Commisioner of Police has implemented a curfew which started at 6pm this evening and will run until 6pm Monday. The prime minister has issued mandatory evacuation order .Persons along coastal areas particularly the South Coast will be urged to evacuate to shelters this will begin this afternoon.This could mean evacuating thousands of people in the next few hours. The Sangster International Airport (MKJS)will be closed as of 8:00pm Saturday evening, August 18. The Norman Manley International will be closed at 11pm tonight. Passengers are being advised to contact their respective airlines regarding flight operations. Despite the airport being open, some carriers will not be able to operate flights into the island due to adverse weather conditions along the flight path. Passengers not holding a ticket for travel on Saturday August 18, 2007 are being advised to refrain from arriving at the airport without making contact with their respective airlines. MBJ Airports Limited is also imploring their industry partners to continue to make contact with the airlines regarding flight operations prior to transporting guests to the airport. Decisions regarding the reopening of the airport will be taken after assessment of the local conditions. The authorities will be issuing evacuation orders on Saturday for residents of some communities. Minister responsible for emergency management, Dean Peart, says the focus will be on communities in low-lying areas. “Well what we are looking at is Caribbean Terrace obviously, Port Royal, Portmore and all the low-lying areas but the ODPEM (Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management) will assess the situation and start issuing the notices. The last time we evacuated Portmore and turned Portmore into a one way out to try to get the people out as quickly as possible,” said Mr. Peart. And Mayor of Portmore George Lee says special arrangements are in place for evacuees who will be using the toll road. “The standing arrangement is for the toll road to be opened to Kingston for evacuation in case evacuation becomes necessary and ODPEM would give us that signal and that will be done. We at this moment are making plans to have loud speakers going around to the vulnerable areas tomorrow as we get the information when the storm will come that we want people to go into the shelters as the first line of defense and secondly if evacuation becomes necessary,” said Mayor Lee. Acting Deputy Director General of the Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management (ODPEM), Cecil Bailey says the National Emergency Operating Centre will be fully operational by Saturday afternoon. Mr. Bailey adds that advisories will also be issued on the location of emergency shelters. “As a general rule of thumb emergency shelters are public schools so generally the nearest public school to a community is the emergency shelter,” said Mr. Bailey. “We encourage persons to take down the number of the parish council office because generally that is where the parish emergency operation centre will be and they are the ones that will coordinate all the shelter management issues at the parish level,” “We will have a national perspective but a quicker response will happen if persons understand how to contact the parish operation centres,” he said. The agency is also urging community members to keep an eye out for vulnerable persons such as the elderly and the disabled living on their own as well as pregnant women. Persons are asked to notify local authorities – the Parish Council or the ODPEM – if such persons are living in their communities and need assistance. 230 shelters are already open and persons are urged to go to them now,before it is too late. news source radio jamaica Latest Metoffice release BULLETIN No. 10 A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for Jamaica as dangerous Hurricane Dean continues on a path towards the island. This means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 24 hours or less: Dangerously high water and/or exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force; or Average winds of 118 km/h (64 knots or 75 mph) or higher. At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 16.1 degrees North, Longitude 70.2 degrees West. This is about 270 km (165 miles) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, or 670 km (420 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica. Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 30 km/h (18 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 240 km/h (150 mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 110 km (70 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 370 km (230 miles) from the centre. Hurricane Dean is expected to continue moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday before tracking across Jamaica through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Outer bands of the hurricane could, however, start affecting the island by late tonight or early tomorrow morning with periods of showers and gusty winds reaching near gale force. As Dean approaches to the coastline, expect heavy rainfall capable of producing severe flash floods and landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3 metres above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the centre of Dean, especially in areas of sustained hurricane-force winds. All small craft operators are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal. All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 8:00 p.m. kjb Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports starting tonight.) http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/ Newstalk93 (Hurricane coverage starts tonight) http://newstalk.com.jm/ Love101fm http://www.love101.org/ Kool 97 fm http://www.kool97fm.com/ Irie fm http://www.iriefm.net/ Power106 FM http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/ ____________________________________________________________________________________ Shape Yahoo! in your own image. 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– Jamaica prepares,Madatory evacuation likely for coastal residents
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2007 13:22:35 -0700 (PDT)
This will be a very short blog as I have to rush my preparation to completion.Below is the latest bullet from the metoffice. The prime minister has issued mandatory evacuation order .Persons along coastal areas particularly the South Coast will be urged to evacuate to shelters this will begin this afternoon. BULLETIN No. 9 *** HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA *** A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for Jamaica as dangerous Hurricane Dean continues on a path towards the island. This means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 24 hours or less: Dangerously high water and/or exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force; or Average winds of 118 km/h (64 knots or 75 mph) or higher. At 1:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 15.9 degrees North, Longitude 69.4 degrees West. This is about 285 km (175 miles) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, or 730 km (460miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica. Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 28 km/h (17 mph) and a general west to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds remain near 240 km/h (150 mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength are forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 95 km (60 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend as far as 335 km (205 miles) from the centre. On the current forecast track, Hurricane Dean is expected to continue moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday before tracking across Jamaica on Sunday afternoon. Outer bands of the hurricane could, however, start affecting the island by late tonight with increasing cloudiness, showers and gusty winds. As the centre of Dean moves closer to the coastline, expect heavy rainfall capable of producing severe flash floods and landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3 metres above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the centre of Dean, especially in areas of sustained hurricane-force winds. All small craft operators are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal. All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 5:00 p.m. kjb Below excerts Dr.Jeff Masters blog Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean’s winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs. The inner eyewall and the new outer eyewall that is forming can be seen on a microwave satellite image from this morning . The 11:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters said that the southern portion of the inner eyewall was missing, so the eyewall is probably collapsing now. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832. The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman’s worst hurricane strike of the past century. Links, You can listen live to our local radio stations by click the links. Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports starting tonight.) http://www.nationwidenewsnetwork.com/ Newstalk93 (Hurricane coverage starts tonight) http://newstalk.com.jm/ Love101fm http://www.love101.org/ Kool 97 fm http://www.kool97fm.com/ Irie fm http://www.iriefm.net/ Power106 FM http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/ below:11amedt Latest track and wind swath ____________________________________________________________________________________ Building a website is a piece of cake. Yahoo! Small Business gives you all the tools to get online. http://smallbusiness.yahoo.com/webhosting
– Jamaica braces as Dean reaches Category 4
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 18:02:14 -0700 (PDT)
The latest NHC advisory is really frightening CAT.4!!!! with winds of WINDS 135 MPH. According to ODPEM massive evacuations are likely early tomorrow morning,and all persons living in low lying and Coastal areas are to prepare to evacuate. Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller has announced that the Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) is in charge of transporting any evacuees. Mrs. Simpson Miller urged Jamaicans to take the hurricane threat seriously and to respond to evacuation orders. “The JUTC has made available 50 buses on standby to evacuate residents to shelters should it be necessary. All police, prison, fire officers and other members of the essential services who were on leave must now report to their respective organizations as part of the preparations to boost our security, search and rescue capabilities,” said Mrs. Simpson Miller. There are current 200 shelters in Western Jamaica, most of which are schools . For the Capital City the main shelter will be the National Area which has the capability of seating thousands,(reminds me of Super Dome in Katrina)and several schools will be used as shelters. Jamaicans are urged to stock up as water as there will likely be a disruption of service. The JPS has activated its emergency plan, Windsome Callum said this after noon that in approaches the island as a Category 4 the power Grid will be shut down,meaning no light. Health The Kingston Public Hospital from this afternoon and into tomorrow will be discharging patients that are able to move around,and only emergency surgeries will be accepted. This will likely be a thumb rule for most if not all of the countries hospitals. Earlier today I went to the supermarket,Market to prepare for Hurricane Dean and I was surprised at the large crowds of people. In great demand were flashlights,lanterns and battery powered radios,and a few stores I visited were short. I also visited the market to buy some kerosene oil for my storm lantern and there was a long line waiting,not only was the wait long,but know Dean was coming the vendor increased the price to 400ja dollars a gallon from 350. On the streets,Dean was on the mind of everyone,I could hear many people discussing how worried they were and their hope that it changes course . Latest Release from metservice *** HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA* * * A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Jamaica as Hurricane Dean, the first Hurricane of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, continues to move towards the island. This means that hurricane conditions pose a possible threat within 36 hours. At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 15.0 degrees North, Longitude 64.5 degrees West. This is about 415 kilometres (260 miles) south-southeast of Puerto Rico or close to 1290 kilometres (805 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica. Dean is moving towards the west near 33 km/h (21 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 205 km/h (125 mph), with higher gusts, making Dean a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and further strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 45 kilometres (30 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend as far as 295 kilometres (185 miles) from the centre. Forecast models continue to project the eye of the hurricane south of Puerto Rico tonight, and over the warm waters of the central Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola on Saturday before moving over Jamaica on Sunday morning. Should this occur, it is expected that the island would begin to experience an increase in showers and gusty winds associated with the hurricane by Saturday evening. Fishers on the cays and banks are again strongly advised to evacuate immediately with a view to returning to the mainland by tonight. Other small craft operators in our coastal waters are advised to return to port and those in port should not venture out. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system. All interests, especially fishers and other marine operators, should pay special attention to subsequent Releases. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 8:00 p.m. CDJ Below:Track and wind swath based on 5pmedt NHC advisory ____________________________________________________________________________________ Got a little couch potato? Check out fun summer activities for kids. http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=oni_on_mail&p=summer+activities+for+kids&cs=bz
– Hurricane Dean and it’s likely impacts on the Caribbean.
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2007 14:28:50 -0700 (PDT)
Source:Hurricane expert Dr.Jeff Masters The Hurricane Hunters made their first penetration of Hurricane Dean this afternoon, and found a strong Category 1 hurricane–100 mph winds, and surface pressure of 974-979 mb. Dean is now a Category 2 hurricane. Once the winds rise to 115 mph, it will be a Category 3 storm–a major hurricane. Wind shear remains near 5 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next five days. Recent satellite loops and reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that an eye has appeared. The eye is not fully formed, and has a gap on the west side. This gap is probably due to the presence of dry air on the storm’s northwest side, which is getting wrapped into the storm. This dry air will persist through at least Friday, and should act to prevent Dean from undergoing rapid intensification until it clears the Lesser Antilles Islands. Dean is steadily moistening the environment around it, and may be able to overcome the dry air on Friday and put on a burst of rapid intensification. I expect Dean will become a large and extremely dangerous major hurricane by Saturday. Latest model runs The latest (12Z) model runs from this morning don’t show much change from yesterday’s runs for the 1-3 day period, but have a wider spread for the 4-5 day period. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing over or just south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. At that point, the models diverge. The NOGAPS model has the southernmost solution, taking Dean into northern Belize/Southern Mexico. The GFDL takes Dean through the Yucatan Channel and northwestward, towards western Louisiana. The other models are in between, with both the HWRF and UKMET nudging their tracks more to the north, grazing the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts both project Dean will be a Category 5 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Tonight marks the first flight of the NOAA jet, and we’ll have a much more reliable set of model runs Friday morning. Hopefully, this will narrow down the uncertainty of what will happen when Dean reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Impacts on the Caribbean Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Gilbert intensified to a Category 3 hurricane as it passed south of Haiti, and made a direct hit on Jamaica, passing the entire length of the island. Gilbert then began a remarkable rapid intensification spurt as it moved over the Cayman islands into the Western Caribbean, reaching an all-time record low pressure of 888 mb before it slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan tracked a bit further south in the Caribbean, but was also a Category 5 storm after it passed Jamaica. Lesser Antilles Islands of Martinique, Dominica, Guadaloupe, and St. Lucia Dean will pass through the central Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning. Martinique and Dominica will likely receive the harshest blow, although damage may also be significant on Guadaloupe and St. Lucia. Heavy wind damage will be the primary threat on these four islands, although torrential rains of 2-7 inches may cause flash flooding problems as well. Storm surge is generally not a problem in the Lesser Antilles, since the surge tends to flow around islands surrounded by deep water. Surrounding Lesser Antilles islands from Grenada to Antigua These islands will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains, but Dean’s rapid forward speed will keep these rains below four inches. Puerto Rico can expect 1-3 inches of rain from the outer rainbands of Dean, but tropical storm force winds should stay just south of the island. The Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic suffered four deaths from flash floods due to heavy rains along the south side of the country during Ivan’s passage. The northern part of the country was relatively unaffected. Five people died from Hurricane Gilbert. I expect similar effects from Dean, which will bring bands of very heavy rain over Hispaniola, leading to isolated life-threatening flash floods on Saturday. I don’t think there will be any airport closures or major impact to tourist areas. The Barahona Peninsula, which juts out to the south, will be at greatest risk. Haiti Haiti is at major risk from heavy loss of life any time a hurricane brushes the island of Hispaniola. Hurricane Ivan did not pass close enough to the island to trigger major flash flooding, and did not kill anyone. However, thirty people died in Hurricane Gilbert. Dean will take a path similar to Gilbert’s and will have a similar strength, so I expect severe flash flooding in the southern part of Haiti may cause many deaths. The airport in the capital of Port-au-Prince will likely close for a time Saturday and Sunday. Jamaica If you have travel plans to go to Jamaica, plan on spending a lot of time praying for the hurricane to miss, because that is what the locals will be doing. This seemed to be what spared Jamaica in 2004, when Hurricane Ivan made a beeline for the island, then suddenly turned and wobbled around the island. Ivan still killed 17 people in Jamaica and left 18,000 people homeless. Most of the major resorts and hotels fared well, and reopened a few days after Ivan passed. Damage on Jamaica totaled $360 million. Jamaica did not fare as well in Hurricane Gilbert, which made a direct hit as a Category 3 hurricane, killing 45. Gilbert dumped up to 27 inches of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing severe flash flooding. Gilbert was the worst hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951. Gilbert left $4 billion dollars in damage, and it was difficult to leave the island for over a week due to blocked roads and closed airports. If Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica, expect to be stranded on the island for many days, with no power. If Dean makes a close pass but misses, as is more likely, expect a few days of hassle. All Jamaica airports will likely close on Sunday when Dean will begin to batter the island. Cayman Islands The poor Caymans got drilled by Ivan at Category 5 strength, and have still not fully recovered. However, the islands did a great job protecting the people there, and only suffered two deaths. 95% percent of the homes and other buildings (which generally follow South Florida’s building codes) were damaged or destroyed. Expect Dean to perform a similar feat if it makes a direct hit as a Category 5. If Dean passes close but misses, the islands will fare much better–Gilbert passed 30 miles to the south of the Cayman Islands, and didn’t kill anyone. There was very severe damage to crops, trees, and homes, but nothing near the level of the destruction wrought by Ivan. Cancun and Cozumel Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula got hammered by Gilbert, which hit as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a 15-20 foot storm surge. Ivan passed to the east of the area, largely sparing it. It’s a little too early to speculate on what Dean might do, but I expect the Cancun and Cozumel airports will close on Monday. This will not be a repeat of Wilma, which hung around the Yucatan for three days. Dean is a fast moving storm that will bring about a day of bad weather to the affected locations. I’ll talk more about Dean’s likely impact on Mexico in a later blog. If you have plans to be in Cancun or Cozumel Monday, be prepared to endure a major hurricane. below:5pmedt wind swath and track ____________________________________________________________________________________ Looking for a deal? Find great prices on flights and hotels with Yahoo! FareChase. http://farechase.yahoo.com/
– Hurricane Dean strengthens as it heads for Martinique
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Thu, 16 Aug 2007 11:15:22 -0700 (PDT)
It is not looking good for friends in St.Lucia,Dominica and especially Martinique.Hurricane Dean for day one has been strengthing quicker than the NHC offical intensity. This moring the Nhc forecast was for dean to hit Martinique as a 85mph hurricane,but as of the 2 pm edt edt advisory Dean has gone way pass that and the new intensity forecast is for Dean to pass over as Martinique early in the morning with winds of 109mph and gusts of 132 mph,the Nhc also calls for Dean to become a Cat.3 hurricane shortly after leaving Martinique. If you live in Monserrat,Guadeloupe,Antigua or St.Kitts you should not put your guard down as Allen Archer of the NHC in his Midday Hurricane report is forecasting Dean to pass over or come close Monserrat or Guadelope area,but for now I am going with the offical NHC track. The only good I am seeing is that Hurricane Dean is a relatively compact storm with a small windfield(hurricane winds only 30 mph from center) which means one island will experience Hurricane conditions,will experience terrible damage but the rest will experience Tropical Storm conditions and will experience minimal damages. Note probabilites are based on 11am edt storm wind swath and are subjected to large error and track shifts do not use to make decisions. Based on the 11am edt advisory Martinique would experience Cat.2 winds,Southern Dominica and Northern St.Lucia would experience strong t.s winds up to 50kts/57mph,Northern Dominica and Southern St.Lucia and Guadelope would experience 34kt/39mph winds and everyone else would see 20kts (note these are sustained winds speeds,higher gust would be likely especially higher elevation). Dr.Jeff Masters impacts on Lesser Antilles statement mpact on the Lesser Antilles Dean will likely pass through the central Lesser Antilles Islands Friday morning as a strong Category 1 or weak weak Category 2 hurricane. Dominica will likely receive the harshest blow, although damage may also be significant on Martinique and Guadaloupe. Heavy wind damage will be the primary threat on these three islands, although torrential rains of 2-7 inches may cause flash flooding problems as well. Storm surge is generally not a problem in the Lesser Antilles, since the surge tends to flow around islands surrounded by deep water. Storm surge values of 2-4 feet are expected with Dean. Surrounding islands from Grenada to Antigua will experience tropical storm force winds and heavy rains, but Dean’s rapid forward speed will keep these rains below four inches. Puerto Rico can expect 1-3 inches of rain from the outer rainbands of Dean, but tropical storm force winds should stay just south of the island. Below: 11amedt track and wind swath visible satellite I will try to have a update around 6 pm ast. Right now the Hurricane Hunters are flying into Dean this is the latest obs Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC) Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:00Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304) Storm Number: 04 Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 03 Mandatory Data… Observation Time: Thursday, 16:56Z Radar Capability: Yes Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters Coordinates: 14.7N 57.0W Location: 208 miles (334 km) to the ENE (57°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Turbulence: None Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear Pressure Altitude: 3,040 meters Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 55 knots (From the ENE at ~ 63.2 mph) – The above is a spot wind. – Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems. Flight Level Temperature: 10°C Flight Level Dew Point: 4°C Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation – from cumuliform clouds) 700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,138 geopotential meters Optional Data… Estimated Surface Wind: From 30° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph) Remarks: SWS 032KTS ____________________________________________________________________________________ Park yourself in front of a world of choices in alternative vehicles. Visit the Yahoo! Auto Green Center. http://autos.yahoo.com/green_center/
– Tracks shift south.. possible Cat 2 hurricane forecast to strike Dominica,Virgin Island/Puerto Rico
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2007 10:08:17 -0700 (PDT)
Well T.s Dean has formed and it’s not looking good for the Northern Leeward Islands,The latest track has shifted further south putting North and Central Leeward Islands at risk of seen a Cat.3 hurricane on the Weekend.This will be my finally blog until the Aug 25th as I am going to thee U.s today,but IO will leave below a link to get expert anayalses. Below stormw blog latest info from Stormw Well T.s Dean has formed and it’s not looking good for the Northern Leeward Islands,The latest track has shifted further south putting North and Central Leeward Islands at risk of seen a Cat.3 hurricane on the Weekend.This will be my finally blog until the Aug 25th as I am going to thee U.s today,but IO will leave below a link to get expert anayalses. Below stormw blog Good afternoon! Enter Tropical Storm Dean…TD4 is now TS DEAN. Dean’s center was relocated just a bit south of the 5:00A.M. advisory. This has shifted the track a little left (or west). Dean is moving west at near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, and furtehr slow strengthening is forecast. Dean is forecast to become a strong CATEGORY 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The new track takes it to just SE of Puerto Rico on a WNW track. I concur right now with NHC track and forecast guidance as well. As discussed earlier, its still up in the air as to whether or not Dean will continue and recurve, or swing back to the west after that. It all depends on the features spoken of earlier. In any event, ALL intersts in th Lesser Antilles, Caribbean and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Dean closely. Florida residents may want to monitor this system as well. The current forecast track does put the threst closer to the U.S. should Dean maintain a WNW or Westerly course after entering the Caribbean. I would expect on the current forecast projection for Hurricane Watches/Warnings to go up for portions of the Lesser Antilles late Thrus/Early Fri, with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for the eastern Puerto Rico coast by late Fri. FOR USCG MLCLANT/LANTAREA: Recommend floating units in the path of Dean take immediate evasive action, and Base San Juan review their Hurricane plan. I will closely monitor Dean, and keep you updated. Disturbance 91L is close to depression status. It is moving to the WNW at 10-15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. All interests in the W. GOMEX should closely monitor this system, as Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings could be issued on short notice for portions of the W. GOMEX coast. Residents should be prepared along the coast to take action if necessary. I agree with the forecast guidance, and it appears Brownsville may get the brunt of this. “Storm” Useful Links Stormw blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/comment.html?entrynum=104&tstamp=200708 Jeff Masters blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=747&tstamp=200708 Crown Weather Tropical Discussion http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html Hurricanecity live hurricane broadcasts updates,when hurricanes threathen with over 165 correspondents on the Islands and US.Aslo Jim Tropical update . http://www.hurricanecity.com/ Tropical Atlantic Great Site for models,rdar etc tropicalatlantic.com NHC satellite page for latest close up views of tropical threats updated every 30 minutes. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml Below 1)latest forecasted track for Dean 11am edt 2&3 infra-red and water vapor loops Good afternoon! Enter Tropical Storm Dean…TD4 is now TS DEAN. Dean’s center was relocated just a bit south of the 5:00A.M. advisory. This has shifted the track a little left (or west). Dean is moving west at near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 40 mph, and furtehr slow strengthening is forecast. Dean is forecast to become a strong CATEGORY 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The new track takes it to just SE of Puerto Rico on a WNW track. I concur right now with NHC track and forecast guidance as well. As discussed earlier, its still up in the air as to whether or not Dean will continue and recurve, or swing back to the west after that. It all depends on the features spoken of earlier. In any event, ALL intersts in th Lesser Antilles, Caribbean and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Dean closely. Florida residents may want to monitor this system as well. The current forecast track does put the threst closer to the U.S. should Dean maintain a WNW or Westerly course after entering the Caribbean. I would expect on the current forecast projection for Hurricane Watches/Warnings to go up for portions of the Lesser Antilles late Thrus/Early Fri, with Tropical Storm Warnings being issued for the eastern Puerto Rico coast by late Fri. FOR USCG MLCLANT/LANTAREA: Recommend floating units in the path of Dean take immediate evasive action, and Base San Juan review their Hurricane plan. I will closely monitor Dean, and keep you updated. Disturbance 91L is close to depression status. It is moving to the WNW at 10-15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. All interests in the W. GOMEX should closely monitor this system, as Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings could be issued on short notice for portions of the W. GOMEX coast. Residents should be prepared along the coast to take action if necessary. I agree with the forecast guidance, and it appears Brownsville may get the brunt of this. “Storm” Useful Links Stormw blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/comment.html?entrynum=104&tstamp=200708 Jeff Masters blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=747&tstamp=200708 Crown Weather Tropical Discussion http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html Hurricanecity live hurricane broadcasts updates,when hurricanes threathen with over 165 correspondents on the Islands and US.Aslo Jim Tropical update . http://www.hurricanecity.com/ Tropical Atlantic Great Site for models,rdar etc tropicalatlantic.com NHC satellite page for latest close up views of tropical threats updated every 30 minutes. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml Below 1)latest forecasted/wind track for Dean 11am edt 2&3 infra-red and water vapor loops ____________________________________________________________________________________ Park yourself in front of a world of choices in alternative vehicles. 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– Flash Flood Warning extended,90L, Dean by Wednesday possible Hurricane THreat to the Islands
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Sun, 12 Aug 2007 13:14:33 -0700 (PDT)
Rainy weather continues around much of the island,and there are reports of road closures in Portland and St.Thomas due to flooding and landslipages. The Flash Flood warning has beeen extended….. NEWS RELEASE * * * FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUED FOR LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARISHES * * * The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of eastern and central parishes effective until 5:00 p.m. today. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Residents are advised to be on the look-out for fast rising waters and to take precautionary action. Motorists and pedestrians are advised not to attempt to cross fording, flooded streets or other flooded areas. The island continues to be affected by periods of showers and thunderstorms as a result of a combination of weather features. The Surface Trough previously across the island has moved on westwards but a Tropical Wave is forecast to move across the island today. This Tropical Wave is expected to interact with a persistent middle to upper level trough, bringing outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further flash flooding is likely over low-lying and flood-prone areas of eastern and central parishes. Fishers and other marine interests should exercise caution due to deteriorating sea conditions in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, especially inshore and offshore the east and south coasts. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation. 90L likelt Dean by Wednesday information below from Crown weather blog… Far Eastern Atlantic and African Infared Satellite Imagery showed fairly deep convection south of the Cape Verde Islands in association with a low pressure system and a tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Convection around this system has seemed to have consolidated over the last few hours according to satellite imagery. Water Vapor satellite loops seems to indicate this system is maintaining a good envelope of moist air around it and I really don’t see any dry air near this system. Wind Shear Analysis from off of the coast of Africa shows that there is 15 to 30 knots of easterly wind shear over this system right now, however, it appears that there is upper level ridging to the north of this system creating some outflow for this system. This morning’s wind shear forecast maps indicate that environmental conditions will become more favorable as time goes on over the next few days. Most of this morning’s computer forecast guidance continues to indicate that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, this includes the GFS model, European model, the UKMET model and the Canadian model. The European model doesn’t develop this system as quick as the GFS model with this model run, due to the European model realizing that the environmental conditions aren’t perfect out there in the eastern Atlantic. The GFS model takes this system through the Leeward Islands on Thursday night and Friday morning and then takes it across the northern Caribbean next weekend, striking Jamaica next Sunday. After that, the GFS model forecasts that this system will continue west-northwest and is forecasted by this model to be near the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula in 10 days (August 21st). The Canadian model also takes this system through the Leeward Islands on Friday and into the northern Caribbean after that. The Canadian model then forecasts that this system will move across the Dominican Republic and Haiti late next weekend. After that, the Canadian model forecasts that this system will be in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 10 days (August 21st). The European model is forecasting a weaker and more northerly track and forecasts it to be about 250 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands by next Sunday. After that, the European model forecasts that this system will track west-northwest and is forecasted by this model to be about 200 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas in 10 days (August 21st). My thinking is that the European model may be the best fit overall and a slow development/intensification is more likely than the GFS model’s rapid rampup. The reason for this is that it appears that the environmental conditions will only slowly get better as time goes on over the next few days and this in turn would lead to slower intensification. A bit of a caveat here, do not take the track forecasts by each of these models literally. An exact track forecast more than 4 or 5 days out is nearly impossible. When you look at a model forecast at 7 or 10 days out, look more at the overall pattern rather than the exact point the model forecasts the storm to be and the overall pattern right now seems to be that this system may not recurve out to sea. In closing, the system in the far eastern Atlantic is looking better and better this morning and I think we will see slow, but steady development over the next several days. My opinion is that this system may develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 36 hours and then intensify into a tropical storm by Monday night or Tuesday morning and then may become a hurricane late this week or next weekend (Between August 17 and August 19). A track to the west and west-northwest seems likely over the next week or so and this system may pose a significant threat to the Windward, Leeward and Virgin Islands next weekend. With that said, we still have plenty of time to watch this system as it traverses to the west and west-northwest over the next week or so and I will keep you all updated on the latest information. The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 5 am EDT Monday. (source crown weather blog) Well I am packing up and headed for vacation so I wont be able to blog till at least Aug 25th I have posted A few helpful links below to help you get information while I am out. Crown weather blog http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html Wind Shear Analysis http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html Gfs model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFSTROPATL_0z/gfsloop.html Ecmwf model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html Ukmet model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTROPATL_0z/ukloop.htm Cmc model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_0z/cmcloop.html Nogaps model http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPTROPATL_0z/nogapsloop.html Weather Underground TropicalPage (Satellite,links,models Dr.Jeff Masters blog) http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/Dean by Tuesay ____________________________________________________________________________________ Take the Internet to Go: Yahoo!Go puts the Internet in your pocket: mail, news, photos & more. http://mobile.yahoo.com/go?refer=1GNXIC
– Flash Flood Warning in effect,All computer models make 90L, Dean,Posibility of Hurricane impacting Islands Aug.19
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Sat, 11 Aug 2007 21:20:32 -0700 (PDT)
It’s been a rainy past 2 days here in Jamaica, First we had a persistent trough and now a Tropical Wave. A large portion of the island especially Eastern and Central areas have already seen a 1in/25mm of rain and more is expected,with the ground saturated there is the risk of flooding the metservice has issued a FLASH FLOOD WARNING ……. * * * FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARISHES * * * The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of eastern and central parishes effective until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow. A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly. Residents are advised to be on the look-out for fast rising waters and to take precautionary action. Motorists and pedestrians are advised not to attempt to cross fording, flooded streets or other flooded areas. The island continues to be affected by periods of showers and thunderstorms as a result of a combination of weather features. The Surface Trough previously across the island has moved on westwards but a Tropical Wave is forecast to move across the island tonight. This Tropical Wave is expected to interact with a persistent middle to upper level trough, bringing outbreaks of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms. This unstable weather is likely to continue into Sunday evening, therefore, flash flooding will continue over low-lying and flood-prone areas of eastern and central parishes. Fishers and other marine interests should exercise caution due to deteriorating sea conditions in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms, especially inshore and offshore the east and south coasts. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation. CDJ All Reliable Computer Models develop Dean To get a good handle of what the system it is always good to compare what the experts are saying below I posted a few anaylses. Dr.Jeff Master blog A strong tropical wave exited the coast of Africa yesterday, and is now a 1006 mb low pressure system with heavy thunderstorm activity southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is not well-organized at present, and has lost some of its thunderstorm activity since exiting the coast of Africa. This is typical for such systems, which take a day or two to adjust to their new oceanic environment before they build new thunderstorms. Wind shear has dropped from 30 knots early this morning to about 20 knots over the region, and wind shear is forecast to continue to drop as the wave continues westward. There is burst of dry air and African dust emerging from the African coast just north of the Cape Verdes, but this is probably too far away to affect the storm. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression as early as Monday. Most of the computer models develop it into a tropical depression that moves west to west-northwest over the Atlantic towards the Lesser Antilles Islands, and I think this is a reasonable forecast that has a 60% chance of coming true. We are into mid-August, when these waves traditionally start to develop, and the dry air and dust associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) does not appear to be a major impediment at present. Wind shear should be low enough and water temperatures warm enough. Water temperatures are about 26-27C south of the Cape Verdes Islands, and gradually warm to 27-28C southwest of the islands, so the chances for development increase as the system gets further west. If you live in the Lesser Antilles Islands, or plan on visiting next week, keep in mind that this forecast puts the Lesser Antilles at increased risk of a seeing a tropical cyclone beginning Friday, August 17. For the period August 17 – August 20, there is at least a 10% chance that a tropical storm or hurricane will affect these islands. Given the high uncertainties that a storm will form, or even make it across the Atlantic without recurving, should it form, one should not be canceling any travel plans at this point. However, you should be giving serious thought to your hurricane plan and what you would do if a hurricane did blow through the islands. Also, keep in minds that several of the computer models develop the next wave moving off the coast of Africa, a week later than the current wave. We are into the active part of hurricane season, and we can expect that one of these waves will develop and threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands–and points beyond–in August. weatherguy03 blog, Let the tracking begin!!! We can see that the SAL has greatly diminished in the Eastern Atlantic, this will give this system an opportunity to develop. As stated above, some of the computer models develop this system. This includes the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET and NOGAPS models. According to the GFS model, this system could be affecting the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by next weekend and then possibly threaten portions of the U.S by the following week. We are currently in a -NAO period, this is again helping to bring some upper level troughs down the East Coast of Florida. One is moving down the East Coast this weekend. Of course, one could not forecast with great accuracy this far out in time if and when the next trough will affect this system and deflect it away from the U.S. Again, this system is about a week away from the Islands and about 10+ days away from the U.S.. We have plenty of time to watch it. Persons living in the Northern Windward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands need to be aware of the situation this week and continue to monitor further developments of this system. Stormw Now we come to…the rest of the story. The tropical wave just off the African coast appears to be the star (seen in the Met8 loop). There is a 1006 mb surface low associated with it. All of the models…CMC (Canadian), GFS (Global Forecast System), UKMET (United Kingdom METeorlogical), and ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting) develop this wave and eventually bring it to or close to hurricane force over the next week. the models have different solutions as far as forward speed, and have it anywhere from 500-600 miles east of the Leeward Islands in about 4-6 days, to near the Bahamas in 10. Tracks have varied…and if this materializes, the possible threat ranges from the Bahamas, to west of the Fla. panhandle. Now, let’s not panic, as these solutions have been changing on and off, and track motion will depend on a few things: That is does actually develop, strength of the system, how steering currents will play out, and speed of the system as well as any weaknesses in the Atlantic ridge. I personally believe though, after looking at some forecast items, that this stays below 20N for most of its trek across the Atlantic. One thing that concerns me is that we have had excellent model consensus (except for the NOGAPS [Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System] which doesn’t even initialize it) for the past 3 days, and the EMCWF model has had 3 or 4 consistent runs I believe. This is usually my model of choice, as I’ve noticed over the past 2 seasons, and now this one (especially in the Pacific) this model has been extremely accurate in cyclogenesis, and forecast track. So, my advice is for everyone to keep a good heads up. This system is undergoing some easterly wind shear right now, and I’m not expecting any good development until this gets further west. This will be somewhat slow to occur. Weathersp The National Hurricane Center in Miami has labeled the wave coming off the coast of Africa as 90L so now we can have access to more models which are designed especially for Tropical Cyclones. 90L has a nice closed center which is noted by the QuickSCAT wind readings. I expect that the National Hurricane Center will label 90L a Topical Depression by later tonight or Tomorrow. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Park yourself in front of a world of choices in alternative vehicles. Visit the Yahoo! Auto Green Center. http://autos.yahoo.com/green_center/
– Happy 45th, Jamaica! ,
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Mon, 6 Aug 2007 10:39:47 -0700 (PDT)
It’s Independence Day here in Jamaica,An Independence Day is an annual celebration commemorating the anniversary of a nation’s assumption of independent statehood,On this day 45 years ago,Jamaica ceased to be a colony of the Britain. Forty-five year ago,Heralded by songs and dances and shouts of jubilation, through the streets of Kingston and all Jamaica, the independence sun dawned bright and clear on August 6, 1962. Bells swelled it out in schools and churches, children, adults and the aged gathered at schools, churches, homes, parks, community centres. There were marches, dances, concerts, bonfires, fireworks and races, parties and treats of all kinds. The younger children were given sweets and balloons. Every one received tokens and mementos of various kinds. Eleven o’clock on this night marked the beginning of the most historic moment of Jamaica’s independence celebrations. On this occasion her Royal Highness Princess Margaret, the Earl of Snowdon, the leaders of government and all the officials along with 20,000 Jamaicans came together at the National Stadium to witness the birth of a new nation. There was a parade followed by prayers of dedication offered by the various heads of churches in Jamaica. The Rt. Rev. Percival W. Gibson prayed: “Into thy hands O Lord God our Father we commend our nation and people at this time. Look down O Lord upon our country and crown our independence with faith, hope and courage. Send down thy light and thy truth that they may lead us into paths of fellowship and peace.” Then at one half minute to midnight the lights went out and darkness descended upon the stage as the Union Jack which had flown in Jamaica for 307 years slowly slithered down the flagstaff for the last time. In one historic moment the lights flooded the stage and for the first time in history the Black, Green and Gold flag of Jamaica proudly ascended the pole, once and for always, symbolising Jamaica’s independence and nationhood. The people looked up with pride. Fireworks went up and there were cheers of jubilation as the long desired day had finally arrived. Jamaicans were no longer British subjects, but citizens of their own country. Eternal Father, Bless our Land, Guide us with thy mighty hand, Keep us free from evil powers, Be our light through countless hours, To our leaders, great defender, true wisdom from above,Justice, truth be ours forever, Jamaica, land we love,Jamaica, Jamaica, Jamaica, land we love Teach us true respect for all, Stir response to duty’s call, Strengthen us the weak to cherish, Give us vision lest we perish, Knowledge send us Heavenly Father, Grant true wisdom from above, Justice, truth be ours forever, Jamaica, land we love, Jamaica, Jamaica, Jamaica, land we love (above article by Neena Chandiramani) In the last hour ,we have picked up a few light Independents Day showers here in Montego Bay,and more nice cooling light showers like this can be expected across the Island this afternoon between 1-5mm of rain. Tomorrow is nomination Day General Elections Aug 27 Tropical Outlook (stormw) Tropical waves were analyzed near longitudes 36W, 46W; 67W. Convection is noted near the Northern Leeward Island and is being enhanced by the ULL (Upper Level Low) to its NW, and is being carried NE. An area of convection, which has sparked an interest, is located near 12N;33W, and is located behind the wave near 36W. Cyclonic turning appears to have developed in the low to mid levels. The CMC (Canadian) model appears to develop this at about 60-72 hours out, albeit a weak system. No other models at this time support this scenario, and I would opt for more model consensus on the possibility of development, however slow development of this area cannot be ruled out at this time. In its current position and motion, and based on the current forecast steering models, this area would appear to be headed in a WNW fashion over the next 72-96 hours, and possibly re-curve. The current motion is being induced partly to a rather large mid level low to its NW out in the Atlantic (which will be mentioned in water vapor imagery). This area will be monitored. The activity near Africa continues, and convection has fired just South of the Cape Verde Islands, associated with the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) and will be watched. A very, very impressive wave is over the continent, and will be monitored closely as it exits into the Atlantic. This may have a tendency to hold together, as Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are ranging between 26-29C in the area. I do believe though, for this to cross the Atlantic, it’s going to have to be pushed further South by the Azores/Bermuda high. There’s the distinct possibility if it hangs out higher than around 12N, it could be drawn off the the NW. Now, the GFS (Global Forecasting System) develops a system starting in about 5-7 days, SE of the Cape Verde’s. It is unclear at this time whether it is the wave getting ready to move into the Atlantic, or the massive one behind it over the African continent right now. This will be monitored closely, even though the GFS is the only model supporting this, as this cannot be ruled out either. Dry air is noted in the Central Atlantic, but has been diminishing, and moisture is prevalent now in the far eastern Atlantic. A mid level low can be seen in the dry air (orange red area) as mentioned above, and is helping impart the northern component on the area mentioned earlier. The ULL can be seen north of the Leeward Islands. Shear is noted off the Eastern Seaboard, over a small area in the Western Caribbean, and a good portion of the Atlantic North and East of the Leeward Islands, though only strong in isolated cells. A good outflow pattern is established and covers a moderate area near the Windward Islands, and is centered about 300 nm east of there. The TUTT(Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof), two inn fact, are noted with an axis near 27N;60W to near 18N;65W. The other near 25N;43W to near 12N;43W. Another trof is noted and appears to be inverted slightly from the West Central Bahamas, NWWD into the Gulf of Mexico. Models diverge on shear with the CMC creating a shear zone at 72+ hours North of the Greater Antilles, to North and East of the Lesser Antilles. The GFS increses shear off the Eastern Seaboard and around Fla. and into the GOMEX in that time, then shifts it to a zone in 6-7 days from Bermuda, across the Northern Bahamas, and into the Gulf. It does however show more favorable upper level winds from 20N; southward from 55W; westward through the Caribbean. Zonal shear models (and I know this has been repeated) indicate a trend toward decreasing shear as this month drags on, albeit a very slow trend. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) current status, and forecasts have changed little, and I am expecting an upward motion pulse anywhere from the third week to near the end of the month, lasting through Sept. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) keeps meandering in the -4 range, and is at -4.2…I do expect this to climb again, once the activity and MJO over the NW Pacific clear out. Anote on th Azores/Bermuda High: Models tkae it more NE over the next few days, and hold it there for about 7-10 days. The GFS is the only model that goes out far enough, and appears to have it oscillating thereafter, and shifting back west for a short time. So, I would expect steering patterns to change on and off for a little, and will have to see what lies beyond that time period. Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday. “Storm” T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret) METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster) CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) ____________________________________________________________________________________ Take the Internet to Go: Yahoo!Go puts the Internet in your pocket: mail, news, photos & more. http://mobile.yahoo.com/go?refer=1GNXIC
– 99L weakens just east of the island,Heavy Rainfall likely this afternoon
From: Blayz Brooks
Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2007 09:05:11 -0700 (PDT)
99L is heading towards the island,this morning one would not know this by looking outside as it is a wonderful sunny day in Montego Bay,but it is currently raining in some eastern sections of the island,and There are some very intense showers and thunderstorms offshore the North Coast. The National Meteorological Service has issued the following news release….. August 3, 2007 at 6:00 a.m. An active Tropical Wave over the central Caribbean is moving quickly towards the west and is expected to influence weather conditions over and around Jamaica, today into tomorrow. Consequently, the island is expected to experience an increase in cloudiness, with periods of squally showers and thunderstorms, which may be heavy at times. These conditions are to start affecting eastern parishes at first, then spread quickly to other areas. Fishers and other marine interests, particularly those over southern waters, are urged to exercise caution due to deteriorating sea conditions in the vicinity of squally showers and thunderstorms. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation. Well adding to what was said to the news release,We can expect squally weather today,mostly in the Afternoon Expect Western and Central parishes…5mm-15mm/0.2in-0.6in Eastern parishes……….. 5mm-54mm 0.2-2.2inches N.B…Winds in squalls could gust up to 40mph/35kts Maximum Temperature expected for Kingston today?32 degrees Celsius. Maximum Temperature expected for Montego Bay today?33 degrees Celsius. 99L analysis Disturbance 99L is looking rather sickly this morning. It is currently being sheared by 25 kts of upper level winds from the West and SW, and will shortly be moving into a small cell with shear on the order of 30+ kts. The NHC Tropical Wx Outlook states that this still has the potential to become a tropical depression before running into Central America in the next day or so. I’m not so sure I’m willing to agree right now…as forecast models are calling for shear to move in tandem with 99L over the next 48-72 hours. The only way I see this system surviving is if it can slow its forward speed some more, and stay behind or in back of that shear cell, or if conditions change as far as the forecast shear for the area. If not…it’s toast…period! I see there was a slight shift north in the model guidance to come in agreement with a more NW track and consensus of landfall from the Yucatan Peninsula to near Honduras (Hmmmm…where did I hear that before) I will continue to monitor this until it reaches land. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Yahoo! oneSearch: Finally, mobile search that gives answers, not web links. http://mobile.yahoo.com/mobileweb/onesearch?refer=1ONXIC